Early 2009 Oscar Predictions

It's never too early to start making Oscar forecasts, especially when fall rolls around with films that may as well have "Oscar bait" on their posters. (A Ron Howard movie about Richard Nixon? Check. Meryl Streep in a tense drama? Double check.) Sometimes contenders come out of nowhere, like sudden frontrunner Mickey Rourke, who emerged from the Toronto Film Festival with "major comeback" buzz for 'The Wrestler.' Check out our top 10 picks for the three major categories, plus one fave each for the supporting categories.'The Changeling'

For: Best Picture
The Buzz: When Clint Eastwood makes a movie, the Academy pays attention. Three of his last four films were nominated for Best Picture Oscars (Mystic River,' Million Dollar Baby' and 'Iwo Jima'), and one of those won ('Baby') -- so why would 'The Changeling' not be on the short list? Let's put it this way: Don't be shocked to see it on the ballot

'Frost/Nixon'

For: Best Picture
The Buzz: Ron Howard brings the acclaimed play about talk-show host David Frost's post-Watergate Richard Nixon interviews to the screen. In a shrewd move, the Oscar-winning director kept the original Broadway cast, including Tony winner Frank Langella. Bonus: Howard's at his best helming true-life pics ('A Beautiful Mind,' 'Cinderella Man').

'Body of Lies'

For: Best Picture
The Buzz: 'Gladiator' director Ridley Scott re-teams with his Oscar-winning man-muse Russell Crowe in this spy flick. William Monahan, who adapted the award-grabbing 'Departed,' and Leonardo DiCaprio (no stranger to the little gold man) are on board as well. If these guys brought their statuettes to the set, it'd cause a run on bullion.

'The Road'

For: Best Picture
The Buzz: Last year, the Coen Brothers spun a Cormac McCarthy novel into Oscar gold with 'No Country for Old Men'; now auteur John Hillcoat ('The Proposition') could do the same. Viggo Mortensen is a dad protecting his son in postapocalyptic America. Hillcoat's adept at bleak, and the Pulitzer-winning 'Road' is even better than 'No Country.'

'Australia'

For: Best Picture
The Buzz: The last time director Baz Luhrmann and Nicole Kidman collaborated, the result, 'Moulin Rouge!,' collected eight Oscar noms. This sweeping romance co-starring Hugh Jackman looks like 'Cold Mountain' gone down under, and could be an antidote to the downers that usually rule this category. But hey, why not call it 'Australia!'?

'Revolutionary Road'

For: Best Picture
The Buzz: It took more than 40 years for Richard Yates' novel to make it to the big screen, but some things are worth the wait. Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet are reunited for the first time since 'Titanic' -- and we all know how THAT one worked out. With Winslet's husband Sam Mendes directing, we're expecting nothing short of revolutionary.

'The Wrestler'

For: Best Picture
The Buzz: Darren Aronofsky won fans for 'Pi' and 'Requiem for a Dream,' then scared some away with 'The Fountain.' This drama about an over-the-hill pro wrestler (Mickey Rourke) is his most personal work yet, with stylistic and hard-to-watch elements reminiscent of 'Reqiuem.' A low-key movie that packs a walloping punch.

'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'

For: Best Picture
The Buzz: That wonderfully haunting trailer, depicting Brad Pitt as a man who is born old and ages in reverse, imbues David Fincher's adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald's short story with the kind of epic melancholia in which Academy voters like to bathe. Early buzz is strong and, frankly, this one just feels like a contender.

'Slumdog Millionaire'

For: Best Picture
The Buzz: Crowd-pleasers rarely make it to the Best Picture race, but if the moviegoers react to Danny Boyle's flick the same way festival audiences did in Telluride and Toronto, 'Slumdog' will be hard to ignore. The unbelievable story of a poor Mumbai teen on 'Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?,' think of this underdog as the Indian 'Forrest Gump.'

Sean Penn, 'Milk'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Sean Penn's turn as California's first openly gay elected official, Harvey Milk, has all the stuff voters dig -- a straight actor playing gay, a real-life drama, a tragic ending and fabulous '70s costumes -- Penn disappears into the role in what could be a thrilling performance, strikingly different from anything he's ever done.

Mickey Rourke, 'The Wrestler'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Though Mickey Rourke earned a fair share of critical acclaim in his heyday, racking up awards was never his forte (the Academy still won't acknowledge Best Sex Scene). That changes now with Rourke's turn as a beaten-down ring warrior 20 years past his prime. It's one of the most surprising performances Hollywood has seen in years.

Leonardo DiCaprio, 'Body of Lies' or 'Revolutionary Road'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Not only will DiCaprio and Russell Crowe play cat-and-mouse in the CIA thriller 'Lies,' they'll also likely battle for Oscar votes. We'll give the edge to Leo, who also brings the heavy drama in his reunion with 'Titanic' soul mate Kate Winslet in 'Revolutionary Road.'

Jamie Foxx, 'The Soloist'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Based on a true story, 'The Soloist' finds Oscar winner Jamie Foxx (who won in '05 for 'Ray') tuning in to his musical skills again to portray Nathaniel Ayres, a former star student at Julliard who became a violin-playing homeless schizophrenic. Will Foxx's depiction be beautiful music to Oscar voters' ears? The trailer looks promising.

Frank Langella, 'Frost/Nixon'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Langella's a Broadway legend, with three Tonys, including one for his performance as Tricky Dick in 'Frost/Nixon.' He captures the ex-prez, from his tired slump to grumbling timbre. More impressively, he manages to make the dishonored leader sympathetic. With this role, the 70-year-old character actor may finally become a movie star.

Viggo Mortensen, 'The Road'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Coming off his first nom for last year's 'Eastern Promises,' Mortensen is blessed with a part seemingly tailor-made for him: a silently heroic dad guiding his son (Kodi Smit-McPhee) to safety in a postapocalyptic U.S. ravaged by nuclear fallout and vicious cannibals. Viggo may just get nod No. 2 -- without having to go full-frontal.

Brad Pitt, 'Curious Case of Benjamin Button'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Pitt the tabloid star grabs all the attention, but Pitt the actor is catching up. In the lukewarmly-reviewed Coen Brothers' 'Burn After Reading,' his has been singled out as the most nuanced performance, and his turn in the challenging 'Button' as a man who ages backward is hotly anticipated. We think Oscar will be impressed too.

Greg Kinnear, 'Flash of Genius'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Playing the inventor of the intermittent windshield wiper doesn't sound like the surest way to snag a first-ever Best Actor nod -- but it just might be the ticket for Kinnear. In a film that's a lot more powerful than it deserves to be, he's the relatable, chill-inducing beating heart, and his performance is a true stroke of 'Genius.'

Will Smith, 'Seven Pounds'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Reteaming with his 'Pursuit of Happyness' director, Gabriele Muccino, Smith goes dramatic for 'Pounds,' playing Ben Thomas, a depressed IRS agent who changes the lives of seven strangers after falling for a terminally ill woman (Rosario Dawson). Smith's dramatic turns always get awards recognition -- third time's the charm for Oscar?

Richard Jenkins, 'The Visitor'

For: Best Actor
The Buzz: Jenkins is a character actor who never really gets his due; he's best known from HBO's 'Six Feet Under.' But in 'The Visitor' he shines as a closed-off prof whose life is transformed by two young immigrants. It's a bravura performance -- nuanced and full of quiet strength -- that deserves recognition alongside Oscar's showier fare.

Anne Hathaway, 'Rachel Getting Married'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: The biggest Oscar talk from the Toronto Film Fest, aside from Mickey Rourke ('The Wrestler'), was for Hathaway in 'Rachel' -- rightly so. As a recovering addict home from rehab for her sister's wedding, she manages to deftly Ping-Pong between self-centered train wreck and vulnerable penitent. Oscar could get smart and recognize it.

Angelina Jolie, 'The Changeling'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: Whatever you may think of Jolie's personal life (and who in America doesn't have an opinion?), when she's on screen audiences and the Academy generally agree -- the woman's mesmerizing. And this film looks to be a tour de force that both fans and critics will get behind. If the formula holds true, Jolie in an asylum = Oscar.

Keira Knightley, 'The Duchess'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: It's becoming as dependable as nightfall: Keira Knightley, fanciful fits, eloquent discourse and a side of hanky panky make a mean Oscar prospect (see 'Pride and Prejudice' and 'Atonement'). Word out of Toronto is that this dolled-up Knightley delivers the goods again and is fast on her way to her second Best Actress nomination.

Meryl Streep, 'Doubt'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: The most celebrated performer in Oscar history (14 noms, 2 wins), Streep's sure to add another nod to her CV with her turn as a conflicted nun in 'Doubt.' John Patrick Shanley's script's full of thoughtful speeches and silences, and Streep's always said as much with a look as with a line. Plus, she gets to do a Bronx accent. 'Nuf said.

Melissa Leo, 'Frozen River'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: As a single mom who resorts to smuggling aliens across the Canadian border, Leo's as cold as the ice she travels across. And yet her raw performance has been breaking critics' hearts in this lauded film since it first won big at Sundance. Leo's made her mark in indies for years now; this one may finally pique Academy interest.

Nicole Kidman, 'Australia'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: Kidman may be the most overpaid actress working (she makes a lot of moolah, her movies generally don't), but we suspect that just makes Oscar love her more. She's back with her 'Moulin Rouge' director Baz Luhrmann, co-starring with fan fave Hugh Jackman, so this down under epic is likely to bring the new mom her third nom.

Tilda Swinton, 'Benjamin Button'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: If the surprise Best Supporting Actress Oscar win for the oddly named, androgynously appealing Swinton taught us anything, it was this: not to be surprised when awards finally caught up with critics' longtime admiration of the Scottish actress. Lesson learned; we'll just expect her name to show up this year.

Kate Winslet, 'Revolutionary Road'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: At 33, Winslet is young to have five Oscar noms without a win. Is this her year? She does have 'Titanic' co-star Leonardo DiCaprio and husband Sam Mendes at her side; and if advance word on her performance as a 1950s housewife is any indication, she'd better start writing her speech. Practicing it out loud? Well, let's not jinx it.

Emma Thompson, 'Brideshead Revisited'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: A tale of suspense, forbidden love and betrayal in pre-WWII England, 'Brideshead Revisited' positions Emma Thompson as the drama's string-pulling puppeteer. As Lady Marchmain, Thompson plays the conniving matriarch of a privileged family to perfection. Already an Oscar fave, it's no surprise her latest role is getting major buzz.

Sally Hawkins, 'Happy-Go-Lucky'

For: Best Actress
The Buzz: Every year, there's at least one nominated actor no one's ever heard of. Our money's on Hawkins, who's so resolutely chipper in Mike Leigh's latest that you want to smack her -- and yet you can't take your eyes off her. It's that combo of verve and vulnerability that dazzles and inspires even hard-hearted cynics such as ourselves.

Heath Ledger, 'The Dark Knight'

For: Best Supporting Actor
The Buzz: Ledger's final completed performance has been the subject of posthumous Oscar buzz since before 'Knight' opened -- and half a billion dollars later, the Ledger Oscar train is full-steam ahead. No actor this year has disappeared so completely into a character; he's created one of the most horrifying, haunting, formidable villains ever.

Penelope Cruz, 'Vicki Cristina Barcelona'

For: Best Supporting Actress
The Buzz: For years, English audiences didn't get the appeal of Cruz as an actress (her devastating beauty was never in question). We knew she was talented in Spanish films, which Oscar acknowledged with a Best Actress nom for 'Volver.' Now, in Woody Allen's latest, she's enthralling. It helps that she's bi (-lingual and -sexual) in the role.